On Statistics…
I was lying in bed thinking out success. By success, I mean excellence in whatever field you are in. I mean being on top of your game. That applies to all things…whether you are a doctor, programmer, entrepreneur, house wife or professional drunk.
It struck me that, to a large extent, success is determined by what we focus on. This is not an unusual concept. We hear this all the time from Self-Help gurus and motivational folks. We all know it’s true in that abstract, distant way we know things. The point is, it’s not a radical thought. However, on this night (early morning really; it’s about a quarter to one as I write this…Lord, I hope this isn’t the onset of insomnia), I have been thinking about a project I am working on. I say “working on”, but what I really mean is that I have been “thinking about starting work” on it. I just realized that the reason I am not doing much is that the statistics say only a small percentage – think 5-10% – will succeed at such a task.
Well, that’s something, isn’t it? Such a small chance of success is daunting. When you factor in the sacrifices you might have to make to begin such a venture, you would be forgiven for wanting to wait and plan and wait some more…just to make sure everything is right before you plunge. You would be forgiven, in the face of such odds.
Hmmm…but are those really bad odds? Look around you. In every walk of life, in every field, there are those that do better than others. There are those who achieve reasonable results, and then there are those that excel. Check the other statistics…the ones that say that 20% of the world own 80% of the wealth (I am hacking the 80/20 rule by Pareto for my own benefit) and so on. If you have a job, can browse the internet and own a phone, then chances are that you are closer to the top 20% in those numbers. Basically, you are probably better off than you think, in the grand scheme of things.
It is life as we know it. Things are skewed that way. We need to see it for what it is. There’s no need to be afraid of action…measured, calculated action, of course. We do the research, we find out what it is that distinguishes those at the top end of our path from the rest, and we work towards that. That’s what I need to focus on…not the scary numbers. The achievement will always require me to get into the higher percentages, no matter what. Everyone else that got there (well, most of them anyway) navigated their way up the numbers as well.
So, I’ll go back to bed and get some rest now. Tomorrow, I’ll go past “thinking” about starting and actually “begin” the process of starting. No, really. I will. You’ll see. Okay, I might just go over my plans…just one more time, you know…?
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I once read that you only need 23 different people in the same room to have a likely chance of tho of them having the same birthday. We look at statistics sometimes without the slightest clue of how they’ll affect us, or how likely, or unlikely something is.
Didn’t know that. Interesting the things you learn…eh?